“Frenzy” and “parabolic” were two words that Michael Novogratz used to describe the recent bout of Bitcoin price action. Indeed, over the past few days, the cryptocurrency market has been subject to a full range of emotions, from euphoria to crushing defeat.
Due to this tumult, Novogratz revealed in a CNBC interview Thursday that his crypto merchant bank, Galaxy Digital, has sold some of its cryptocurrency positions. Yet, he asserted that this is just a short-term play, not a sign that he is capitulating out of the crypto market. But what’s next according to the former Wall Street investor?
Tradable Top at $14,000
Per Novogratz, Wednesday’s price action was a clear sign that Bitcoin has put in a tradable top at $14,000. Indeed, BTC peaked just shy of the aforementioned level, which analysts cite as the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement of the 2018 bear market. This level, for those not versed in technical analysis, often acts as a barrier of resistance during market recoveries. $14,000 seems to be no exception.
And as Adaptive Capital’s David Puell points out, $13,800 to $13,900 is also key from a monthly and quarterly perspective. More specifically, this is where the monthly and quarterly candles closed in late-2017, which appeals to the theory that resistances established previously will continue to hold their importance into the future.
$BTC: About to battle magnificents foes, the monthly and quartely resistances at $13,800-$13,900.
Fight might be bloody and tiresome, but once we claim victory, lads, by all means, all bets are off… pic.twitter.com/Yaon5Ly6vx
— David Puell (@kenoshaking) June 25, 2019
This doesn’t mean that Bitcoin is susceptible to a large retracement, however. Novogratz, who famously claimed to have 20% of his liquid wealth in Bitcoin and Ethereum in 2017, notes that BTC is most likely to trade within a range of $10,000 to $14,000 for the foreseeable future. The leading cryptocurrency, as of the time of writing this piece, sits at $10,800 — just above the bottom of the estimated range.
Consolidation in this range would surely be healthy. As a CNBC analyst said in a recent “Futures Now” segment, while he’d hate to call the rapid bearish reversal “healthy”, Bitcoin remains above $10,000, meaning that it could resume its blatantly upward trajectory with due time.
Bullish on Bitcoin For These Reasons
Although Novogratz isn’t expecting Bitcoin to move to new all-time highs at $20,000 and beyond anytime soon, he remains bullish on the cryptocurrency and its respective ecosystem for a number of reasons.
Firstly, Facebook’s launch of Libra. Like many other industry executives, but unlike representatives of central banks, Novogratz believes that the launch of the Silicon Valley-backed project validates the idea of cryptocurrency, and Bitcoin by extension.
You see, not only is Facebook getting into this ecosystem but so are Uber, Booking Holdings, Spotify, Visa, PayPal, and other massive names in technology, finance, and venture investing. Novogratz claims this project will entice institutions to finally take the plunge, which could, coupled with the launch of Bakkt’s and Fidelity’s platforms, result in a mass inflow of capital into Bitcoin.
Secondly, he notes that with the ongoing trade war between China and the United States, Bitcoin is likely to continue to see use as a medium of illicit capital flight from the nation.
Indeed, the massive growth in Tether’s market capitalization as of late is, according to crypto analytics service Messari, tied to Chinese investors using the stablecoin to bypass capital controls. With some expecting negative results from the meeting between presidents Trump and Xi this weekend, Bitcoin may only continue to see growth as a result of the wealthy Chinese looking to store their value in something decentralized and non-sovereign.
Thirdly, he expects for massive financial companies, namely Visa and Mastercard, to accept Bitcoin in some way shape or form within the coming years. He wasn’t confident that it would be widely used via those vendors, but he asserted that it would add to its viability and staying power.